US using a combination of tactics, including a psy-war in cyberspace, quiet diplomacy and local vigilance.
In the days immediately after the attacks of Sept 11, 2001, members of US President George W. Bush’s war Cabinet declared that it would be impossible to deter the most fervent extremists from carrying out deadly terrorist missions.
Since then, however, administrations, military and intelligence officials have begun to change their view.
After piercing together a more nuanced portrait of terrorist organisations, they say there is reason to believe that a combination of efforts could in fact establish something akin to the posture of deterrence, the strategy that helped protect the United States from a Soviet nuclear attack during the Cold War.
As part of this strategy, their effort has been to mute Al-Qaeda’s message, turn the jihadi movement’s own weaknesses against it and illuminate Al-Qaeda’s errors whenever possible.
A primary focus has become cyberspace, which is the global safe haven of terrorist networks.
To counter efforts by o to plot attacks, raise money and recruit new members on the Internet, the government has mounted a secret campaign to plant bogus e-mail messages and website postings, with the intent to sow confusion, dissent and distrust among militant organisations, officials confirm.
At the same time, American diplomats are working quietly behind the scenes with Middle Eastern partners to amplify the speeches and writings of prominent Islamics clerics who are renouncing terrorist violence.
At the local level, the authorities are experimenting with new ways to keep potential terrorists off guard.
In New York City, as many as 100 police officers in squad cars from every precinct converge twice daily at randomly selected times and at randomly selected sites, like Times Square or the financial district, to rehearse their response to a terrorist attack.
City police officials say the operations are believed to be a crucial tactic to keep extremists guessing as to when and where a large police presence may materialise at any hour.
“What we’ve developed since 9/11, in six or seven years, is a better understanding of the support that is necessary for terrorists, the network which provides that support, whether it’s financial or material or expertise,” said Mr Michael Leiter, acting director of the National Counter-terrorism Centre.”
“We’ve now begun to develop more sophisticated thoughts about deterrence, looking at each one of those individually,” Mr Leiter said in an interview.
“Terrorists don’t operate in a vacuum.”
For obvious reasons, it is harder to deter terrorists than it was to deter a Soviet attack.
Terrorists hold no obvious targets for American retaliation as Soviet cities, factories, military bases and silos were under the Cold War deterrence doctrine.
So American officials have spent the last several years trying to identify other types of “territory” that extremists hold dear, and they say they believe that one important aspect may be the terrorists’ reputation and credibility with Muslims.
In Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan, specially trained teams have recovered computer hard drives used by terrorists and are turning the terrorists’ tools against them.
“If you can learn something about whatever is on those hard drives, whatever that information might be, you could instil doubt on their part by just counter-messaging whatever it is they said they wanted to do or planned to do,” said Brigadier-General Mark Schissler, director of cyber-operations for the Air Force.
It is a delicate campaign that American officials are trying to promote and amplify – but without leaving telltale American fingerprints that could undermine the effort in the Muslim world.
Senior Bush administration officials point to promising developments.
Saudi Arabia’s top cleric, Grand Mufti Sheik Abdul Aziz al-Asheik, gave a speech last October warning Saudis not to join unauthorised jihadist activities, a statement directed mainly at those considering going to Iraw to fight the American-led forces.
Such dissent are serving to widen rifts between Al-Qauea leaders and some former loyal backers, Western and Middle Eastern diplomats say.
TST, Mar 19 2008, World